That's a great point about being honest with yourself. I think a lot of runners, including myself, tend to overestimate their outdoor performance based on their treadmill times. It's important to remember that outdoor running has its own unique challenges, and it's better to start with a conservative pace and adjust from there. Also, don't forget to factor in the lack of wind resistance and softer landing on a treadmill.
I had the chance to work with John Moogan during a training camp and I can attest to his incredible knowledge and dedication to the sport. He'll be deeply missed, but his impact on athletics will continue to inspire future generations.
Off topic, but RIP to Judge Urbina. Not sure what this has to do with running though...